A leading executive was once asked what single characteristic was most important when selecting a project manager. His response: “a person with the ability to know what will go wrong before it actually does.” We might add: “and the courage to estimate when the future is cloudy.”

Estimation of resources, cost, and schedule for a software development effort requires experience, access to good historical information, and the courage to commit to quantitative measures when qualitative data are all that exist. Estimation carries inherent risk and it is this risk that leads to uncertainty.

Project complexity has a strong effect on uncertainty that is inherent in planning. Complexity, however, is a relative measure that is affected by familiarity with past effort.

_{R.S. Pressman. Software engineering. 4th edition, McGraw-Hill (with adaptations).}

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